To Nomar or Not Nomar

When Ned Colletti brought in Nomar Garciaparra to patrol first base this winter, everyone knew what the Dodgers would be getting. A top-shelf hitter and five-time all-star with an injury history that would scare Lloyd's of London out of the insurance business. And thus far, that's exactly what they've got.

On one end of the balance scale I present the following — .360 BA, 6 HR, 36 RBI, a .421 OBP and a stupid high 1.046 OPS that beats anything he did during his "glory years" in Beantown. Let's not forget — the dude is only 32 years old (for a couple more months, at least). Probably a little too early for the Rascal and Medical Alert Bracelet. Even more impressive? Nomar has accomplished all of this in only 35 games...which brings us to the scale's joyless, buzz-kill side.

Why has he only played 35 games? Because his rib injury kept him on the DL and out of action until April 22. A nice little reminder that Nomar has suited up 143 times in the last three seasons combined. Maybe that Rascal isn't such a bad idea.

So the Dodgers have seen the risks, they've seen the reward. Now what?

Nomar will be a free agent at the end of this season. Should he stay healthy and keep producing, the notion that someone would throw 3/$27 million at him isn't hard to imagine. He could get more years and more money than that, especially if GMs throughout baseball think that the move to first provides enough Boy in the Plastic Bubble-esque protection to make him worth the risk. Owners are goofy creatures often equipped with extremely short memories. Aggressive spending isn't unusual. Every game he plays now makes him more expensive than the game before. That means the Dodgers have a choice to make. Should they take the bull by the horns and try to wrap him up early? Should they take a risk, offer Garciaparra 3/$18 (give or take) now, and chance on some false move or shoelace trip or other bit of baseball black comedy landing him on the 60-day DL? Or should they wait, make sure he can play a season and accept that it might take more this winter to keep Nomar in Dodger blue?

The answer has less to do with baseball strategy and more to do with Frank McCourt's bank account. Even if he makes it through this year, that's no guarantee he won't play 50 games a year for the rest of his career. In 2001, he played 21 games for the Red Sox. He followed with two seasons of 156. Then the three-year injury run came along. That means in only two of his last six seasons has he made it past Game 62. I don't care if he plays every day until October, that's a scary track record. So if McCourt is willing to take the plunge and pony up, he'll have to invest more in Nomar insurance, not the kind State Farm gives out, but the type you can put on your 25-man roster.

Spending $20 million on Nomar means maybe another $10 to 12 available for a viable Plan B. If keeping Nomar doesn't keep McCourt from spending where he needs to spend, I say make the guy an offer now and wrap him up. He's clearly answered the whole, "Can he still hit?" question, and as a nice bonus plays a pretty good first base — the baseball equivalent of pulling up to a parking meter and finding it already has time on it. Don't forget too, back in '03 Nomar turned down four years and $60 mil from the Sox. That bit of bad planning cost him a rather tidy fortune. This time around, he might take the "bird in the hand" approach. If everything goes well, that means a discount for the Dodgers.

Granted, it's easy for me to advocate that approach. It's not my money. If signing Garciaparra could be restrictive on the budget — and it's not unreasonable for Frank McCourt to have a budget (argue about how big another day) — then they might want to wait and see what the going rate for Garciaparra is this winter. Maybe the rest of the league will be spooked by his medical history, present productivity aside. The Dodgers have options waiting in the minors. There are other guys who can play first base out there, younger, less fragile guys. Not necessarily better hitters, but guys who are less likely to blow the budget by collecting checks on the DL.

Like futures trading, the Dodgers may want to try and lock in their price for tomorrow today. Then again, tempting as the commodity may be, is it worth owning long term at all? Ironically, the best chance for the Dodgers, in terms of keeping him long term at a lower cost and not in terms of their championship aspirations, might be if some low level injury puts him on the 15-day DL one more time this year. Nothing serious, but just enough to sober up potential bidders. The ol' cloud and silver lining approach.

—BK

Comments

[LoLo]

Damn you BK and your tough questions!!!!

[LoLo]

My heart says give him what he wants, but I know that isn’t prudent. Then again, we don’t KNOW what he wants. That 4/$60 million…you can kiss that goodbye. If he is asking for that then I will personally show him the door. I’m not saying he isn’t worth it, but with all the young talent coming up we don’t need Nomar at $15 million a pop. If we are going to pay somebody that much dough then it had better be to Pujols.

As you said BK, it’s not my money. But I would rather give him Drew-like money than give it to Drew. But we are stuck with Drew, so I don’t know if we can afford two expensive injury-prone players. I guess at $10 million a year, I say take him. We can fit him somewhere and he will be a nice solid veteran bat in our future lineup with kids in it. If I have to play Russian roulette I will say that his injuries the last two years were freak accidents. He was solid before that, unlike Drew who has always been broke.

One thing to keep in mind is where the payroll will be 2 years from now. If we plan on having a roster full of kids them McCourt may very well roll the dice and keep Nomar since the payroll should be relatively low.

I say $10-$11 million a year, for 4 years or less…keep him! I’ll take Mia out to dinner and smooth things over with her. Once I got the “pants in the family” onboard then Colletti can come in for the kill!!!

[Michael Teniente]

I don't know what it will take but I would keep Nomar.

mike

[MrsThinkBlue]

I would take my chances & keep Nomar.

I think that Nomar enjoys playing in L.A.

He is home. And that counts a lot for some players. Maybe if that is the case Nomar wont ask for too much.

Let's hope he doesn't get a big head like Weaver & accepts whatever the dodgers offer him to stay.

**I posted Kent's "diagnosis" on the EXTRA EXTRA**

[SantaMonica4Ever]

I think the thing that is being looked over is the fact that Nomar might just very well want the Dodgers as much as they want him. Maybe I watched one too many of those warm and fuzzy Nomar loves Mia segments on ESPN or Fox Sports, but the impression I get is that Nomar would like nothing more than to finish his career in Southern California.

First of all I think that he and Mia own a home in one of those beach communities down there behind the 'Orange Curtain'. He's got family to think about. Of course that brings into play the 'other L.A. baseball team', the one that plays an hour south of Los Angeles.

Yet my feeling is that if what we are seeing is the rebirth of Nomar then he is not going to turn around and say, 'show me the money'. You got to imagine that he is as happy with the way things are going as is Dodger management. Unless his agents initials are S.B., or unless things start going drastically wrong with this team (they start playing terribly, there is some major clubhouse issue, etc), then I think that not only is it in his best interest to stay in L.A. (emphasis on the L.A.), but that he will not be looking to break the bank in the process.

I of course have no empirical evidence to prove this (call it a gut feeling). Even if he has an amazing year and even if he manages to stay healthy (those are big 'ifs') I still can't see him asking for 4 years at 15 mil a year. A more likely scenario is that he will ask for security as far as length of contract goes. If he goes .300+/20+/100+ then I would give him 10 mil a year in a heartbeat (even if it's for three or four years). With all the young talent the Dodgers have coming up this is the kind of player you want to have around. He is consistent on a day-to-day basis and money as the game/season gets long.

All this of course becomes a mute point if he has a serious injury. If he does his ACL tomorrow then Arte Moreno can have him!

It's going to be gamble either way, but maybe a gamble that McCourt and company need to take!

Go Blue!!

[LoLo]

AK/BK,

Has there been any indication from the Nomar camp as to what he will be looking for? From the Colletti camp as to where their threshold will be? As I said before, what Nomar is looking for will be a big factor on whether or not he stays.

[Pho 06]

How about 6 years at 60 million?
While we're on Nomar, I couldn't help chuckle watching Saenz scoop balls at 3rd last night. The "Killer Tomato" looked like a prize tomato. I was impressed wathing someone of his girth making the plays he did last night. It seemed once he entered
the game every Brave wanted to hit the ball to him.
Just in case this situation was to come up again(might never happen when both Izzy and Kent are back), I'd much rathe see Nomar move over to 3rd and Saenz take over at first.

[Michael Teniente]

Joel Guzman just got called up? I'd like to see him play. He can hit.

mike

[Faith]

Nomar is HOTTT sign him up for 4 years lol

Seriously I'd wait. Nomar is a great player, and no joke , I think I'm in love with him (lol) but he does have a history of playing well in the beginning of the season and of injury so I'd wait until maybe almost at the end to see if he keeps up the bat (like he's been known to) and stay injury free (like he hasn't been known for lately).

[Dodger Fan]

Doesn't his contract this year include incentive bonuses? I would be in favor of doing the same thing in a contract extension, give him 2-3 years for 10-15 million with another 2-3 million a year or so in incentive bonuses. I'm always in favor of incentive bonuses.

[Makoto Ueno]

Had the Dodgers not given Kent an extension earlier in the year, I would be all for keeping Nomar around for as long as he wants to stay. But, since Kent is locked in for next year, and with Izturis coming back, moving Kent to first, and having a Izzy/Furcal DP combo, and Aybar providing offensive production and increasingly better defense at 3B (or a healthy Mueller) would be a pretty solid infield for 2007. Of course, this all depends on the health of the players involved. If, by the end of the summer, Kent looks like he is going to finish his career on the DL, or Izzy makes a Knoblauch-like decline in skills, then you've got to pay Nomar to stay for at least one more year. That should give Loney or some other novice 1B to learn under a veteran presence for a full season. Remember, the Dodger's minor league system is full of IF prospects (even if many of them are being asked to try the outfield positions), so I wouldn't be in so much of a hurry to overpay any veteran to a long term contract. Though any money spent on a healthy Nomar the way he's playing right now would be worth it.

[Ben C.]

Get rid of Odalis and give that money to Nomar... 6-9 mil. a year.

[Bosco Brave]

BK, There is no mystery as to why Nomar is doing so well. You’re forgetting to factor in the home town equation. He’s home, for the first time in his brilliant career he gets a chance to play in front of his parents, family and friends for at least 82 games, and more if you drive to SD. Man I’ve been waiting for him to come back for those that watched him play at St. John Bosco and in the Olympics. Now WE get to see the sign of the cross and the toe dance in our stadium.

[Paul Sandor]

Nomar was the best aquisiton by any team this past year. He was once mentioned in the same breath as A-Rod and Jeter. With Nomar, J.D. Drew and Jeff Kent, the Dodgers pose a potent 3-4-5 threat to any opposing pitcher. Nomar has quickly become a fan favorite and team leader. Despite the risks of signing Nomar to a long term contract (his laundry list of injuries in recent years) the Dodgers would be wise to lock up one of the games best hitters for at least three years. His upside is worth the risk...

[Brian Kamenetzky]

Paul-

Thanks for commenting. I'm not actually surprised Nomar is hitting well (This well? Maybe a little beyond expectations, but still not all that surprising). He showed last year, while healthy, he could still hit, and the reports of his bat speed this winter were great. It's just a question as to whether he can stay healthy. But I think your point of the extra support in having his family and a community that remembers and likes him is a big help.

BK

[mark]

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